President Obama was re-elected to a second term last night (something forecasted by stats guru Nate Silver). What does it mean for employers?
I won’t go quite as far as fellow blogger Jon Hyman, who said this morning that “it just doesn’t matter” who won last night. I think it matters in part.
But the impact for employers will probably be far less than was suggested during the campaign season. Much will depend on the level of compromise that comes out of Washington.
Here are four areas where we should keep an eye on:
- “Obamacare” — With Obama’s re-election, the idea that universal healthcare will somehow be repealed is done. With implementation of key provisions due in 2014, employers who have been on the fence about the changes that are required to their benefit system should now start moving forward. Verdict: It’s happening.
- NLRB — The National Labor Relations Board has been flexing its muscle under Obama’s first term. This political agency will likely try to continue to push forward changes to election rules and posters — even as the litigation regarding those items promises to slow things down. This is one area that employers ought to pay close attention to. Verdict: NLRB remains an agency to watch.
- ENDA — The Employment Nondiscrimination Act, which would prohibit employers nationwide from discriminating against employees based on their sexual orientation, has been discussed a lot. But with same-sex laws passing in Maine and Maryland, the sentiment in the country appears to be shifting. While this won’t have much impact in Connecticut (where state law already prohibits such discrimination), I wouldn’t be surprised to see a new push for this bill’s passage. Verdict: Some compromise bill is likely on ENDA.
- Paycheck Fairness Act — Stephanie Thomas of the Proactive Employer blog suggests this morning that the gender pay gap was an issue in the last term and will remain a priority in the next term. (Check out her post for other potential issues.) I tend to agree with her, but with a Republican-controlled House of Representatives, it’s hard to see how a compromise is going to be shaped here. Verdict: My guess is that we won’t see passage of this bill anytime soon.
But as I said before, it’s still too early to figure out what the next four years will bring. Even driving into work, I heard a dozen differing opinions about what the election “means”. We tend to overstate the results from elections on the morning after, and I think the same applies here.
The fact is we’ve had gridlock on the Hill for the last two years; no employment laws have been passed. Will the gridlock in Washington continue? Perhaps. But if it starts to break, then perhaps we will start to see some more compromise measures being passed.